Security in a Changing Climate:
Defence Spending and Strategy
for a Warming World

The 2026 CSAC annual conference will be held in Montreal, on 17-18 June. Security in a Changing Climate: Defence Spending and Strategy for a Warming World will analyse and debate the links between climate change and the radical transformation of international relations, the implications of increased defence spending on the climate security agenda, and, specifically, the consequences for Canadian and allied security and defence policy. Two sets of questions will be addressed.

 

One, discussions about the consequences of climate change for security and defence have so far emphasised how the climate crisis multiplies security threats or how it might lead to instability and war. In military and defence contexts, this has led to little to no systemic analysis of how climate change transforms the geopolitical and strategic landscapes, affects defence organisations, or impacts the future of war. Where are the evaluations of climate risks, vulnerabilities, and opportunities for defence and military organisations? What structural effects can climate change have on these organisations? What are the implications for defence planning, strategic foresight, and climate security futures?

 

Two, the foundations of international relations are shifting. Prime Minister Mark Carney (Davos, January 2026) calls on governments to navigate the “rupture” of the international rules-based order in order to adopt a “values-based pragmatism.” This rupture creates the space to examine issues that have received too little attention. In the name of realism, the climate change and the climate security agendas have been marginalised and eclipsed, while national sovereignty, energy security, economic growth, and risk management have dominated discussion of climate change. In the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) context, Canada and other “middle powers” have increased their defence budgets, with the Carney government promising a doubling in defence spending by 2030. Such a military buildup present multiple dilemmas, not the least by locking-in future carbon emissions that will exacerbate climatic change and climate security risks and vulnerabilities. What is, then, the future of climate security and defence? What are or should be the possibilities and opportunities and the trade-offs for defence and military organisations? How can “values-based pragmatism” inform defence and military organisations in coming years? Where should the money go?

 

The conference programme is built to inform policy and enrich the public debate, but also to contribute to the scholarship on climate security and defence. Climate Security Studies (CSS) have largely focused on the direct impacts of climate change on security. Our interest is in how climate change affects, shapes, and alters the sociotechnical capacities, possibilities, and imaginaries of defence organisations, and the implications for military functions and missions. As such, our conference is primarily an investigation into how defence and military organisations operate, plan to operate, or should operate in a world being transformed environmentally and politically.

 

 

Draft Programme (subject to change)

 

Day 1 (June 17, 2026)

8:30-8:45               Opening Remarks – Prof. Bruno Charbonneau & Prof. Gregory Hooks

 

8:45-9:15                Opening Address

 

9:15-10:30             Plenary Session: Taking Stock: The State of the (Climate) Security World

This plenary session will set the table to the conference by discussing the current political moment, defined as one of increasing uncertainties and international turmoil. The objective is to assess the implications for the climate security and defence agenda.

 

 

10:45-12:15            Panel 1: Canada, NATO, and the Arctic

Canada and NATO face accelerating strategic pressures in the Arctic as climate change opens new sea routes and intensifies great power competition. Panel 1 examines how they can strengthen surveillance, bolster northern infrastructure, and deepen cooperation with Indigenous communities as ways to ensure stability, protect sovereignty, and promote their interests in the Arctic region

 

 

1:30-3:00               Panel 2: Military spending and carbon emissions

Panel 2 discusses the challenge of military carbon emissions in the context of increased defence spending. It explores the macroeconomic picture of climate policy and defence spending, how armed forces contribute to global climate change, and the possibilities of low carbon operations. Discussions will consider technological innovation, strategic adaptation, and policy reform, highlighting whether meaningful emissions reductions are compatible with readiness, deterrence, and the evolving demands of contemporary security environments.

 

 

3:30-5:00               Panel 3: Defence and the energy transition

The global energy transition is reshaping defence planning, exposing militaries to new operational, logistical, and geopolitical pressures. This panel examines vulnerabilities in fuel dependent capabilities, the demands of integrating cleaner technologies, and the strategic implications of shifting energy markets, highlighting how defence organisations must adapt to remain effective in a decarbonising world.

 

 

Day 2 (June 18, 2026)

8:30-10:00           Panel 4: Defence industrial base and procurement

Developing an effective defence industrial strategy has become increasingly difficult amid global instability, supply chain disruptions, and rapid technological change. This panel examines how governments and industry can streamline procurement, strengthen domestic capacity, and balance urgency with accountability to ensure armed forces receive timely, reliable capabilities in a volatile strategic environment.

 

 

10:30-12:00         Panel 5: Security dilemmas: resilience and adaptation at the climate-strategy nexus

Security and defence organisations must adapt to climate driven disruptions while remaining prepared for rapid geopolitical shocks. This panel addresses the policy dilemmas that emerge from having to balance climate adaptation measures with the need to sustain readiness, deterrence, and operational agility in an increasingly unstable global environment, highlighting the trade offs shaping future security and defence planning.

 

 

1:30-3:00               Panel 6: National resilience and civilian preparedness

Integrating disaster risk reduction, climate action, and security and defence planning has become essential as environmental shocks increasingly affect military organisations and intersect with geopolitical instability. This panel explores practical pathways for aligning these agendas, examining past and ongoing practices of civil-military relations, national resilience, and civilian preparedness. An emphasis on governance, capability development, and cross sector collaboration is meant to define best practices for building more resilient societies capable of withstanding both climatic and security related disruptions.

 

 

3:30-5:00              Panel 7: Strategic foresight: the future(s) of (climate) war, security, and defence

This panel examines why strategic foresight and security-defence experts and practitioners must treat climate change and the energy transition as foundational to imagining future security environments. It explores how ignoring low carbon futures skews analysis, why some foresight insights gain more legitimacy than others, and how integrating climate and energy realities reshapes assumptions about military limits, capabilities, and transformation pathways.

 

 

5:00-5:15                Closing Remarks